A high-profile cryptocurrency trader, known in online circles as the “Trump insider,” has increased a significant bet against Bitcoin, adding another 200 BTC valued at approximately $22 million to an existing short position. This latest move brings the trader's total bearish position to nearly $100 million, signaling a strong conviction that the digital asset's price will fall further.
The transaction, tracked through on-chain data, comes as the broader cryptocurrency market attempts to stabilize after a recent downturn. The trader's history of well-timed, profitable trades has made this new position a focal point for market observers trying to gauge near-term sentiment.
Key Takeaways
- A prominent crypto whale added $22 million (200 BTC) to their Bitcoin short position.
- The total short position now stands at 900 BTC, valued at approximately $99.6 million.
- The position was opened with 10x leverage and is currently showing a small unrealized loss.
- This trader gained notoriety for reportedly making $160 million by shorting Bitcoin before a major market sell-off linked to a news event.
- The move contrasts with growing optimism from some institutional investors, who anticipate a rally fueled by expected interest rate cuts.
Details of the New Position
Blockchain data confirms the trader expanded their short exposure, bringing the total bet to 900 BTC. The entire position is valued at roughly $99.6 million and utilizes 10x leverage, a strategy that amplifies both potential gains and losses. This high-leverage approach indicates a significant level of confidence in their market thesis.
The average entry price for this trader's short is reported to be $109,521 per Bitcoin. Based on current market prices, the position is carrying an unrealized, or “floating,” loss of about $1.1 million. This means the position is temporarily unprofitable but has not been closed.
Position At a Glance
- Total Short Size: 900 BTC
- Approximate Value: $99.6 million
- Leverage: 10x
- Average Entry Price: $109,521
- Liquidation Price: Near $141,072
A critical metric for this trade is the liquidation price, which sits near $141,072. If Bitcoin’s price were to rise to this level, the trader's position would be automatically closed by the exchange to prevent further losses, resulting in a complete loss of the invested capital.
A History of Opportunistic Trades
This particular trader is not new to making large, contrarian bets. The wallet first gained significant attention after a highly profitable trade that earned it the nickname “Trump insider.” The account reportedly netted $160 million by shorting Bitcoin just before a tariff announcement by former President Donald Trump caused a sharp market decline.
This history of seemingly prescient timing has given the trader's actions significant weight within the crypto community. Many analysts and retail investors monitor this wallet’s activity for clues about potential market direction.
Recent Bearish Activity
This $22 million addition is part of a larger pattern. Earlier in the week, the same trader deposited $30 million in the stablecoin USDC to an exchange before opening a Bitcoin short worth $76 million. Just days prior, the position was expanded to a total of 3,440 BTC, valued at $392.6 million at the time, which briefly showed an unrealized profit of $5.7 million before the market rebounded.
The continued expansion of this short position, even as Bitcoin attempts to find a price floor, suggests the trader believes the market has not fully accounted for impending downside pressure. The decision to double down on a bearish bet is a clear statement of intent.
Conflicting Market Signals
The “Trump insider’s” bearish stance stands in stark contrast to the sentiment expressed by many institutional investors. A recent report from Coinbase Institutional revealed a more optimistic outlook among professional money managers.
According to the Coinbase report, 67% of institutional investors surveyed expect a significant rally in Bitcoin's price within the next three to six months.
This optimism is largely driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly the anticipation of monetary policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Many economists and market strategists are forecasting at least two interest rate cuts from the Fed this quarter. Such a move could make risk assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive to investors.
The 'Cash on the Sidelines' Theory
A key argument for a potential rally is the massive amount of capital currently held in low-risk assets. An estimated $7 trillion is parked in money market funds, earning modest returns. A shift in Fed policy could encourage investors to move a portion of this capital into higher-growth assets, including Bitcoin.
However, the same institutional report highlights that the macroeconomic environment remains the single biggest perceived risk for digital assets. This creates a complex picture where long-term optimism is tempered by short-term uncertainty.
What This Means for the Market
The current market dynamic places a large, well-known bearish trader against a backdrop of institutional optimism. This divergence in sentiment could lead to increased volatility in the coming weeks. Bitcoin's funding rates, which reflect the cost of holding leveraged positions, have recently turned negative, indicating that more traders are betting on a price decline in the futures market.
The actions of the “Trump insider” serve as a prominent counter-narrative to the bullish case for Bitcoin. While institutional players are positioning for a recovery driven by Fed policy, this whale is betting that near-term headwinds will prevail.
For now, the market remains in a delicate balance. Whether the institutional optimism or the whale's bearish conviction proves correct will likely depend on upcoming economic data and central bank decisions. All eyes are on whether this nearly $100 million bet against Bitcoin will become another profitable chapter for the so-called “insider.”
