Soybean futures experienced a downturn in early Thursday trading, with prices falling by 5 to 6 cents. This decline followed a positive session on Wednesday where the market saw gains ranging from 4 to 7.5 cents, primarily in the front-month contracts.
The market is currently processing mixed signals, including fresh buying interest indicated by a significant increase in open contracts, alongside pressure from strong export figures from Brazil. These competing factors are contributing to the current price volatility in the agricultural commodity sector.
Key Takeaways
- Soybean futures declined by 5 to 6 cents on Thursday morning after gaining up to 7.5 cents on Wednesday.
- Open interest in the soybean market grew by 19,222 contracts, suggesting an influx of new capital.
- Soybean derivatives showed mixed results, with soymeal futures gaining in front months while soy oil also saw an increase.
- Brazil's projected soybean exports for October are 7.12 million metric tons (MMT), significantly higher than the 4.44 MMT from the same period last year.
Soybean Market Sees Price Reversal
After a period of upward momentum, the soybean market shifted direction. On Wednesday, front-month soybean futures closed with notable gains. The November 2025 contract, for example, finished the day 7.5 cents higher at $10.29 per bushel. However, this strength was short-lived, as prices retreated by 5.5 cents in the subsequent overnight session.
This pattern of gains followed by a reversal was also observed in other contracts. The January 2026 soybeans, which had risen by 5.25 cents, gave back an identical amount. Similarly, the March 2026 contract lost 5 cents after closing up 4.25 cents.
Increase in Open Interest Signals New Activity
A key indicator of market sentiment, daily open interest, showed a substantial increase of 19,222 contracts during Wednesday's rally. This metric represents the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not been settled. A rise in open interest during a period of increasing prices is often interpreted by analysts as a sign of new buying activity, suggesting that new money is entering the market rather than existing participants simply closing out short positions.
What is Open Interest?
Open interest is a measure of the total number of active futures and options contracts. It provides insight into the amount of money flowing into a market. When open interest increases along with prices, it can confirm an upward trend, as it indicates that new buyers are confident enough to enter the market.
Performance of Soybean Derivatives
The markets for soybean byproducts, soymeal and soy oil, also experienced notable activity. These derivatives are crucial components of the overall soybean complex, as they are used in animal feed and for cooking and industrial purposes.
Soymeal Futures Show a Split Market
Soymeal futures presented a mixed picture. Front-month contracts, which are for nearer delivery dates, saw prices increase between 30 cents and $1.90 per ton. In contrast, back-month contracts for later delivery were either steady or declined by as much as 60 cents. This divergence can indicate that current demand is strong, but traders are less certain about demand further in the future. The market also processed another 61 deliveries against the October soymeal contract overnight.
Soy Oil Prices Climb Higher
Soy oil futures moved decisively upward, with gains ranging from 44 to 70 points. This positive movement was supported by fundamental factors in the vegetable oil market. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) reported that 11 deliveries were made against the October bean oil contract, a routine part of the futures settlement process.
National Cash Price Update
The cmdtyView national average cash price for soybeans was reported at $9.53 1/2 per bushel. This reflects an increase of 8 1/4 cents, indicating that the price paid for physical soybeans at local elevators and processors strengthened alongside Wednesday's futures rally.
Export Outlook and Global Supply Factors
Global trade dynamics play a significant role in determining U.S. soybean prices. While official government data on U.S. exports is currently suspended, market participants are relying on estimates and observing international competitors.
Trader Expectations for U.S. Sales
Despite the absence of the weekly Export Sales report, traders have formed expectations for U.S. sales during the week ending October 2. Analysts anticipate that soybean bookings for the 2025/26 marketing year will fall within a range of 0.6 to 1.6 million metric tons (MMT). For soybean derivatives, sales are projected to be between 150,000 and 350,000 metric tons for soymeal, and from 0 to 25,000 metric tons for soy oil.
Brazil's Export Growth Pressures Market
A major factor weighing on the market is the strong export performance from Brazil, a primary competitor to the United States in the global soybean trade. According to recent estimates, Brazilian soybean exports for October are projected to reach 7.12 MMT.
"This figure is substantially higher than the 4.44 MMT exported during the same month last year, representing a more than 60% increase. This surge in supply from South America can limit the upside potential for U.S. soybean prices by providing international buyers with an alternative source."
Price Discovery for Crop Insurance
The price of soybean futures in October is particularly important for American farmers due to its role in crop insurance calculations. The harvest price for many insurance policies is determined by the average closing price of the November soybean futures contract throughout the month.
So far through the first six trading sessions of October, the November soybean contract has averaged $10.21 per bushel. This average will be updated daily and finalized at the end of the month. The final harvest price is then compared to the pre-planting price to determine potential insurance payouts for farmers who experience yield losses.
Key Price Levels to Watch
Here is a summary of recent price movements for key soybean futures contracts:
- November 2025 Soybeans (ZSX25): Closed at $10.29 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents. It was recently trading down 5 1/2 cents.
- January 2026 Soybeans (ZSF26): Closed at $10.44 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents. It was recently trading down 5 1/4 cents.
- March 2026 Soybeans (ZSH26): Closed at $10.57 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents. It was recently trading down 5 cents.
Traders will continue to monitor the balance between signs of fresh domestic buying and the competitive pressure from increased international supply as the market seeks a stable price level.
