Bitcoin's price has fallen below a critical on-chain metric, the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, prompting concern among market observers. An on-chain analyst suggests that this development, based on historical patterns, could signal an upcoming correction of approximately 10% over the next two to three months.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin's price has moved below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, which currently stands at around $111,500.
- This is the fourth time this has occurred during the current bull market cycle that began in November 2022.
- Previous instances where the price dropped below this metric were followed by an average price decline of nearly 10%.
- Analyst Burak Kesmeci indicates a potential consolidation or correction phase could last for the next two to three months if this trend holds.
Understanding the STH Realized Price
A significant indicator for market sentiment, the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, has been breached by Bitcoin. This metric calculates the average price at which recent market participants, defined as those holding Bitcoin for less than 115 days, acquired their coins.
Because it represents the average cost basis for this active group of investors, the STH Realized Price often functions as a dynamic level of support or resistance. When the market price falls below this level, it means that, on average, short-term holders are now holding their assets at an unrealized loss, which can create selling pressure.
What is the STH Realized Price?
The STH Realized Price is a crucial on-chain metric that provides insight into the behavior of recent Bitcoin buyers. It is not a simple moving average but rather a weighted average of the price at which every short-term coin was last moved on the blockchain. A drop below this level is often interpreted as a sign of weakening market strength.
Historical Patterns Signal Potential Correction
According to analysis shared by on-chain specialist Burak Kesmeci on the social media platform X, this is the fourth time Bitcoin has fallen below the STH Realized Price during the current bull run. In the three prior occurrences, the market entered a period of consolidation and price decline.
Kesmeci highlighted the specific outcomes of these previous instances:
- First Instance (August - October 2023): The price of Bitcoin saw a decline of more than 8%.
- Second Instance (June - October 2024): The cryptocurrency's value dropped by over 13%.
- Third Instance (February - April 2025): A price dip of nearly 8% was recorded.
These historical data points suggest a clear pattern. When short-term holders fall into an unrealized loss position, the market tends to struggle to find immediate support, leading to a period of downward or sideways price action before the next significant move.
Averages from Past Occurrences
On average, the consolidation phases that followed Bitcoin's drop below the STH Realized Price lasted for 77 days and resulted in an average price correction of almost 10%.
Analyst Forecasts a Two to Three Month Cooldown
Based on the established historical precedent, Kesmeci projects that Bitcoin could be entering a similar phase. If the price fails to reclaim the STH Realized Price level of around $111,500 and closes the week or month below it, a correction could be imminent.
Should history repeat itself, investors might anticipate a market downturn of as much as 10% over the next two to three months, aligning with the average duration of previous consolidation periods.
This potential "correction process" would serve to reset market expectations and shake out less committed holders before a potential continuation of the broader uptrend. Investors are closely watching weekly and monthly price closes for confirmation of this trend.
Current Bitcoin Market Status
As of the latest data, the price of Bitcoin is trading at approximately $109,538. This places it firmly below the critical $111,500 STH Realized Price threshold. The price has remained relatively stable over the past 24 hours, but the underlying on-chain data points to potential for increased volatility.
The market is now at a pivotal point. A decisive move back above the STH Realized Price could invalidate the bearish signal, while continued weakness would lend more credibility to the possibility of a 10% correction. The performance leading into the historically bullish month of October will be critical for determining Bitcoin's short-to-medium-term direction.
