Soybean futures contracts posted significant gains on Thursday, driven by a surge in new buying activity and growing anticipation over upcoming U.S. government agricultural reports. The upward price movement reflects market concerns about potentially tightening supplies as traders position themselves ahead of key production and inventory data.
The November futures contract, a closely watched benchmark, settled at $11.32 per bushel, marking an increase of 11.5 cents. Other contracts for future delivery saw similar or even larger gains, signaling broad strength across the soybean complex.
Key Takeaways
- Soybean futures saw double-digit gains, with the November contract climbing 11.5 cents to $11.32.
- Open interest rose by 16,783 contracts, indicating new investment is flowing into the market.
- Traders are anticipating key USDA reports on crop production and ending stocks, which are expected to show tighter supplies.
- Recent export sales data showed solid demand for soybeans, although soy meal sales presented a mixed picture.
Market Reacts to New Investment
A key indicator of market sentiment, open interest, saw a notable increase of 16,783 contracts. This rise suggests that the price rally was not merely the result of existing traders closing out short positions, but was fueled by new capital entering the market with bullish expectations. This influx of new buying interest provided strong support for prices throughout the trading session.
The gains were not limited to a single contract month. The January 2026 contract closed 13.25 cents higher at $11.47 per bushel, while the March 2026 contract added 12.75 cents to finish at $11.56. This widespread strength indicates a consistent belief among traders that prices may continue to climb in the near future.
By the Numbers: Thursday's Close
- November 2025 Soybeans: $11.32 (+11.5 cents)
- January 2026 Soybeans: $11.47 (+13.25 cents)
- National Average Cash Price: $10.73 (+12.75 cents)
The physical market mirrored the gains seen in futures. The cmdtyView national average cash price for soybeans rose by 12.75 cents, reaching $10.73 per bushel. This alignment between futures and cash markets reinforces the underlying strength of the current price trend.
Diverging Paths for Soy Products
While raw soybeans saw a strong rally, the market for its processed derivatives told a more complex story. Soybean meal, a key component in animal feed, experienced a significant price surge. Futures for soymeal were up between $2.50 and $7.40 per ton, reflecting robust demand in the feed sector.
In contrast, soybean oil futures moved in the opposite direction. Contracts for soy oil were down by 30 to 37 points. This divergence highlights different supply and demand dynamics within the broader soy complex. Strong demand for protein-rich meal is currently outweighing the fundamentals for soy oil, which is used in food products and as a feedstock for biofuels.
Understanding the Soy Complex
The price of soybeans is influenced by the value of its two primary products: soymeal and soy oil. When soybeans are crushed, they yield both components. Strong demand for one product can lift the entire complex, but diverging prices, as seen recently, can create complex trading incentives for processors.
Export Data and Global Demand
Recently released data on export sales provided further insight into global demand for U.S. soybeans. For the week ending September 25, the U.S. sold 870,533 metric tons (MT) of soybeans to international buyers. This figure points to continued, healthy demand for the raw commodity on the global stage.
The data for soy products was more nuanced. Soybean meal sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year were recorded at a strong 623,515 MT. However, this was partially offset by cancellations totaling 216,215 MT for the 2024/2025 marketing year, which recently concluded. These cancellations may reflect buyers adjusting their positions as the new marketing year begins.
Bookings for soybean oil were modest, coming in at 13,598 MT for the week. This aligns with the weaker price performance of soy oil futures compared to meal and whole beans.
Anticipation Builds for Critical USDA Data
The market's primary focus is now shifting to a series of crucial reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The agency is expected to release a backlog of unreported large daily sales, providing a clearer picture of recent demand. Furthermore, traders are eagerly awaiting the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and updated Crop Production figures.
"The market is pricing in expectations of a smaller crop. Any deviation from that consensus in the official USDA numbers could trigger significant volatility."
A recent Reuters survey of traders and analysts offers a glimpse into market expectations. The consensus forecast is for the national soybean yield to be revised downward by 0.4 bushels per acre to 53.1 bushels per acre (bpa). If realized, this would reduce the total production estimate by 35 million bushels to 4.266 billion bushels.
Analysts also predict the WASDE report will project U.S. soybean ending stocks at 304 million bushels. This figure, slightly up from the 300 million bushels projected in September, would still represent a relatively tight supply situation, leaving little room for unexpected disruptions in production or increases in demand.
The official government data, set to be released soon, will either confirm or challenge these market expectations, likely setting the price direction for soybeans in the weeks to come.
